tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-16456346808266012024-02-21T01:07:38.405+00:00The Pwll Melyn TangentEdward ap Sionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15511766646476781622noreply@blogger.comBlogger3125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1645634680826601.post-62189359534264465752008-07-28T12:03:00.002+01:002008-07-28T12:05:26.358+01:0022.53 per cent swing Wales - how the Parliamentary map would look in Wales<p class="MsoNormal">Now, I appreciate this is not in anyway scientific, nor indeed does it take into account grass-roots issues.<span style=""> </span>However, this is what the Welsh voice in <st1:city><st1:place>Westminster</st1:place></st1:City> would look like if a <st1:city><st1:place>Glasgow</st1:place></st1:City> East-style swing (of 22.53%) were to occur in <st1:country-region><st1:place>Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region> at the next General Election.<span style=""> </span>The swing is transferred to the party that finished second to Labour in each constituency it won in 2005.<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Aberavon<span style=""> </span>Lab Hold</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Alyn and Deeside <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Arfon <span style=""> </span>Plaid</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Blaenau Gwent <span style=""> </span>Independent</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Brecon & Radnor <span style=""> </span>Lib Dem</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Bridgend <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Caerphilly <span style=""> </span>Plaid </p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:city><st1:place>Cardiff</st1:place></st1:City> Central <span style=""> </span>Lib Dem</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:city><st1:place>Cardiff</st1:place></st1:City> North <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:city><st1:place>Cardiff</st1:place></st1:City> South & Penarth <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:city><st1:place>Cardiff</st1:place></st1:City> West <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:place>Carmarthen</st1:place> East & Dinefwr <span style=""> </span>Plaid</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:place>Carmarthen</st1:place> West & <st1:place>South Pembs</st1:place> <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Ceredigion <span style=""> </span>Lib Dem</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Clwyd South <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Clwyd West <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Conwy <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:place><st1:placename>Cynon</st1:PlaceName> <st1:placetype>Valley</st1:PlaceType></st1:place> <span style=""> </span>Labour Hold</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Delyn <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Gower <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Islwyn <span style=""> </span>Labour Hold</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Llanelli <span style=""> </span>Plaid</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Meirionnydd <span style=""> </span>Plaid</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Merthyr & Rhymney <span style=""> </span>Labour Hold</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Monmouth <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Montgomeryshire <span style=""> </span>Lib Dem</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Neath <span style=""> </span>Plaid</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:city><st1:place>Newport</st1:place></st1:City> East <span style=""> </span>Lib Dem</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:city><st1:place>Newport</st1:place></st1:City> West <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Ogmore <span style=""> </span>Labour Hold</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Pontypridd <span style=""> </span>Lib Dem </p> <p class="MsoNormal">Preseli Pembs <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:place>Rhondda</st1:place> <span style=""> </span>Labour Hold</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:city><st1:place>Swansea</st1:place></st1:City> East <span style=""> </span>Lib Dem</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><st1:city><st1:place>Swansea</st1:place></st1:City> West <span style=""> </span>Lib Dem</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Torfaen <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Vale of Clwyd <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Vale of Glamorgan <span style=""> </span>Tory</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Wrexham <span style=""> </span><span style=""> </span><span style=""> </span>Lib Dem</p> <p class="MsoNormal">Ynys Mon <span style=""> </span>Plaid<span style=""> </span></p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Labour 6 (-29), Tory 17 (+14), Lib Dem 9 (+6), Plaid 7 (+4), Independent 1.</p> <p class="MsoNormal"><o:p> </o:p></p> <p class="MsoNormal">Quite frightening really – <st1:country-region><st1:place>Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region> would be a true-blue Tory heartland.<span style=""> </span>What struck me in compiling the above was that Plaid really is nowhere to be seen when it comes to challenging Labour (like the SNP do in <st1:country-region><st1:place>Scotland</st1:place></st1:country-region>) in Labour heartlands ie industrial working-class areas.<span style=""> </span>In places in the North East, like Delyn and Alyn, it is the Tories and not Plaid that come second to Labour.<span style=""> </span>No risk of Plaid emulating the SNP in the near future.</p>Edward ap Sionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15511766646476781622noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1645634680826601.post-49142304310662710242008-07-26T14:25:00.002+01:002008-07-26T15:09:07.453+01:00Wales dithers as Scotland marches<p class="MsoNormal">The stunning by-election victory for the Scottish National Party in Glasgow East this week has attracted the usual clichés, although I really don't believe the journos and usual commentators have fully appreciated the significance of the victory and what it means for the <st1:place>Union</st1:place>.<br /><br />The UK media have of course explained away the rejection of Labour in Glasgow East as just another by-election defeat for Gordon Brown and another 'protest vote' against unpopular Government policies that are, of course, a consequence of 'global economic problems.'<br /><br />Whilst I accept the fact that rising food and fuel prices, on top of the 10p tax farce were all factors in Labour's defeat, what the Brit press fail to grasp is that this was a rejection of the sovereignty of the British Government in <st1:country-region><st1:place>Scotland</st1:place></st1:country-region>. It was, in effect, a mini-referendum on whether the <st1:place>East Weigies</st1:place> wanted to legitimise UK Government interference in Scottish affairs, or whether they endorsed the Scottish administration's transition from an 'executive' to a real government with teeth.<br /><br />The SNP's slogan for the by-election 'On your side' I think encapsulated the mood that lingers in the new-found confidence of the Scottish people: they trust their government to put them first, and reject <st1:city><st1:place>Westminster</st1:place></st1:City>. Quite ironically, at a time when the UK Cabinet must feel like a meeting of IRN BRU shareholders.<br /><br />And significantly, the people of Glasgow East, a strong Hibernian-Catholic area, where the SNP have been suspected of being Presbyterian and diametrically in contrast with the Glasgow Irish's vision of a united <st1:country-region><st1:place>Ireland</st1:place></st1:country-region>, have crossed that last legacy of Britishness in the Gaelic countries: sectarianism.<br /><br />For while the Scots for generations have divided into Catholic-Protestant, Gaelic-Lallands, Highland-Lowland camps, the British state has happily kept Scotland in the Union playing on 'unique' divisions in Scottish society and selling the Union as the glue that keeps them all together in relative peace.<br /><br />But post-2007 <st1:country-region><st1:place>Scotland</st1:place></st1:country-region> is a very different place to the poor, partisan <st1:country-region><st1:place>Scotland</st1:place></st1:country-region> of the early 1900s. The SNP administration has demonstrated, consistently and confidently what the SNP always knew: that the Union actually keeps old divisions alive and that when Scots get on with making decisions for themselves and each other, then divides are crossed, communities come together and strength is found in the most important segment of the shared values of Scots, whoever and wherever they are, namely the fact that they are Scottish.<br /><br />The old bogeymen and psychological barriers neatly placed and safeguarded by the British Sate for generations are gone, for good and forever. The SNP will continue I'm sure to win the trust of the people of <st1:country-region><st1:place>Scotland</st1:place></st1:country-region>, for their success in doing so will not only determine the future of a political party, but also the fate of a nation.<br /><br />Such a contrast with <st1:country-region><st1:place>Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region>. Although we cannot expect our national movement to match, or come close to matching, the significant rise of the Scottish counterpart. There is a significant feeling of frustration for a Welsh Nationalist in watching our Celtic cousins setting a new social and political agenda, whilst we, it seems, timidly and apologetically lurk in the wilderness.<br /><br />If there is one thing Plaid Cymru need to learn from the SNP, it is that only through setting the political agenda can a party deliver succession for its country from a larger state. Plaid Cymru needs to remember that it will never deliver (if indeed it desires) independence for <st1:country-region><st1:place>Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region> by relying on the devolution process to organically conclude with the lowering of the Butcher's Apron from <st1:place><st1:placename>Cardiff</st1:PlaceName> <st1:placetype>Castle</st1:PlaceType></st1:place>.<br /><br />And how tiring it is for Plaid to claim that all of <st1:country-region><st1:place>Scotland</st1:place></st1:country-region>'s successes in nation building are down to the fact that it has always had its own education, banking, and criminal justice systems. The party cannot hide behind such excuses anymore. Devolution has existed for nearly ten years and yet there is a lack of momentum and direction in the Welsh national movement. It is responsive and at times, frankly, impotent. Entering into coalition with Labour may have been a wise move at this juncture for the party, but if it fails to deliver not only constitutional change, but also a change in the esteem of the people, then maybe Plaid Cymru underestimated the ability of the Labour party to pacify and negate Plaid Cymru in government.<br /><br />A number of opportunities have been and gone. Plaid Cymru could have nailed so many blows to Labour's coffin with announcements from <st1:city><st1:place>Whitehall</st1:place></st1:City> getting more and more draconian and right-wing. The 10p, non-doms, Welfare reform, fuel and energy costs etc. <st1:city><st1:place>London</st1:place></st1:City>'s difficulty is <st1:country-region><st1:place>Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region>' opportunity.<br /><br />The case for full fiscal autonomy for <st1:country-region><st1:place>Wales</st1:place></st1:country-region>, within or without the <st1:place>Union</st1:place> could have been made with effortless ease on all of these issues. 'A Welsh treasury would re-introduce the 10p tax band'; 'a Welsh treasury would cap energy costs.' The script writes itself.<br /><br />Plaid is in government, and has demonstrated that all hell won't break loose with nationalists in government in <st1:place><st1:placename>Cardiff</st1:PlaceName> <st1:placetype>Bay</st1:PlaceType></st1:place>. But frankly, our national legislature is hardly filled with charismatic and visionary states-people; anyone could be competent in government in the Bay.<br /><br />And that should make it easier for Plaid. Although many of their most talented are outside the Senedd (Adam Price springs to mind) getting such people elected to the Assembly could provide Plaid with a formidable potential front-bench team. Perhaps Plaid needs to be more calculating in terms of its candidate selection and maybe then we will see the temperature rise. <br /><br />As Alex Salmond said, his party and government are marching to a Scottish tune. It's maybe time Plaid Cymru had the courage to change the record and conduct a confident, pro-independence symphony.</p>Edward ap Sionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15511766646476781622noreply@blogger.com6tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-1645634680826601.post-81430919009394774822008-02-27T13:56:00.003+00:002008-02-27T14:03:59.190+00:00Here goesI was never one for technology, but having read much in the papers about <span class="blsp-spelling-corrected" id="SPELLING_ERROR_0">politicians</span> being accessible to their electorate via new technology, I decided to give blogging a go. I have a lot more time on my hands now since retiring but not too much to become an obsessive blogger - I hope.<br /><br />I am quite cynical about the current state of affairs in Wales, and I feel that, yet again we are being left behind by the other countries of Britain and Europe economically, politically, culturally and in so many other ways. The new administration in the Assembly is yet to impress me with any bold vision, or indeed bold action. I fear this could be another false dawn for Wales.<br /><br />So I hope my commentary will add to, what appears to be, a very lively debate here in cyberspace on the fate of Wales.Edward ap Sionhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/15511766646476781622noreply@blogger.com0