Monday, 28 July 2008

22.53 per cent swing Wales - how the Parliamentary map would look in Wales

Now, I appreciate this is not in anyway scientific, nor indeed does it take into account grass-roots issues. However, this is what the Welsh voice in Westminster would look like if a Glasgow East-style swing (of 22.53%) were to occur in Wales at the next General Election. The swing is transferred to the party that finished second to Labour in each constituency it won in 2005.

Aberavon Lab Hold

Alyn and Deeside Tory

Arfon Plaid

Blaenau Gwent Independent

Brecon & Radnor Lib Dem

Bridgend Tory

Caerphilly Plaid

Cardiff Central Lib Dem

Cardiff North Tory

Cardiff South & Penarth Tory

Cardiff West Tory

Carmarthen East & Dinefwr Plaid

Carmarthen West & South Pembs Tory

Ceredigion Lib Dem

Clwyd South Tory

Clwyd West Tory

Conwy Tory

Cynon Valley Labour Hold

Delyn Tory

Gower Tory

Islwyn Labour Hold

Llanelli Plaid

Meirionnydd Plaid

Merthyr & Rhymney Labour Hold

Monmouth Tory

Montgomeryshire Lib Dem

Neath Plaid

Newport East Lib Dem

Newport West Tory

Ogmore Labour Hold

Pontypridd Lib Dem

Preseli Pembs Tory

Rhondda Labour Hold

Swansea East Lib Dem

Swansea West Lib Dem

Torfaen Tory

Vale of Clwyd Tory

Vale of Glamorgan Tory

Wrexham Lib Dem

Ynys Mon Plaid

Labour 6 (-29), Tory 17 (+14), Lib Dem 9 (+6), Plaid 7 (+4), Independent 1.

Quite frightening really – Wales would be a true-blue Tory heartland. What struck me in compiling the above was that Plaid really is nowhere to be seen when it comes to challenging Labour (like the SNP do in Scotland) in Labour heartlands ie industrial working-class areas. In places in the North East, like Delyn and Alyn, it is the Tories and not Plaid that come second to Labour. No risk of Plaid emulating the SNP in the near future.


Anonymous said...

i agree Plaid Cynru couldn't have pulled off what the SNP did in Glasgow but then neither could the Lib Dems or Tories despite welsh labour woes, welsh politics is in a dyer state with no obvious way forward unlike in Scotland.

Dotcommentator said...

Has this factored in the compensating influence of the regional lists? These will tend to counterbalance the larger swings by region so if this voting pattern were played out then Labour would win some seats back on the lists.